>> HELLO, EVERYONE AND WELCOME TO "AMANPOUR & CO. "

HERE'S WHAT'S COMING UP.

EVERYONE IS A TARGET, A STARK WARNING FROM ISRAEL, AS IT GOES AFTER IRAN'S TOP OFFICIALS AND INTENSIFIES STRIKES ON LEBANON.

I ASK FORMER PRIME MINISTER NAFTALI BENNETT ABOUT ISRAEL'S ENDGAME.

THEN, TEHRAN HITS BACK HARD AT TEL AVIV, SO HOW MUCH ARE ISRAEL'S TARGETED ASSASSINATIONS DESTABILIZING THE REGIME?

FORMER IRANIAN DIPLOMAT SEYED HOSSEIN OUSAVIAN GIVES ME HIS VIEW.

PLUS, STILL A MAJOR CHECKPOINT, HOW THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ BLOCKADE IS STRANGLING OIL SUPPLY AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.

AUTHOR EDWARD FISHMAN EXPLAINS.

>> "AMANPOUR & CO. "

IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE ANDERSON FAMILY ENDOWMENT, JIM ATTWOOD AND LESLIE WILLIAMS, CANDACE KING WEIR, THE SYLVIA A. AND SIMON B. POYTA PROGRAMMING ENDOWMENT TO FIGHT ANTISEMITISM, THE STRAUS FAMILY FOUNDATION, THE PETER G. PETERSON AND JOAN GANZ COONEY FUND, CHARLES ROSENBLUM, MONIQUE SCHOEN WARSHAW, KOO AND PATRICIA YUEN, COMMITTED TO BRIDGING CULTURAL DIFFERENCES IN OUR COMMUNITIES, BARBARA HOPE ZUCKERBERG AND BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU.

THANK YOU.

> >> WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, EVERYONE.

I'M CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR IN LONDON.

A VOW OF REVENGE FROM IRAN AS A FUNERAL PROCESSION IS HELD FOR A TOP SECURITY OFFICIAL WHO WAS KILLED IN AN ISRAELI STRIKE.

TEHRAN HAS BEEN RAMPING UP ATTACKS ON ISRAEL, WITH TWO PENSIONERS KILLED IN STRIKES ON CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND ALMOST 200 PEOPLE HOSPITALIZED IN 24 HOURS.

U. S.

- ISRAEL ATTACKS ON IRAN'S GAS FIELDS NOW COULD MEAN HARDER IRANIAN RETALIATION AND FURTHER SHOCK TO THE GLOBAL ENERGY MARKET.

IRAN'S NATURAL GAS IS ALMOST ALL FOR DOMESTIC USE FOR MILLIONS OF ORDINARY PEOPLE.

ISRAEL CONTINUES TO TARGET TEHRAN LEADERSHIP IN A BID TO SOW CHAOS ACCORDING TO A SENIOR INTELLIGENCE OFFICIAL.

PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU HOPES THAT CHAOS WILL ENABLE A POPULAR UPRISING.

THE UNITED STATES IS INCREASINGLY RAISING THE SPECTER OF DEPLOYING GROUND TROOPS WITH A WARSHIP BELIEVED TO BE CARRYING MARINES AND SAILORS FROM A BASE IN JAPAN TO THE REGION.

MEANTIME, IN LEBANON, AT LEAST SIX PEOPLE WERE KILLED IN ISRAELI ATTACKS ON CENTRAL BEIRUT, ACCORDING TO THE HEALTH MINISTRY THERE.

ISRAEL ISSUED NEW EVACUATION ORDERS ACROSS LEBANON.

MORE THAN A MILLION PEOPLE HAVE ALREADY BEEN DISPLACED.

SO, WHAT IS ISRAEL'S LONG-TERM GOAL?

NAFTALI BENNETT WAS ISRAEL'S PRIME MINISTER UNTIL 2022 AND HE IS JOINING ME NOW FROM THERE.

SO, WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.

>> THANK YOU.

>> SO, I'VE JUST LAID OUT I THINK TO THE BEST OF WHAT YOU ALL HAVE ANNOUNCED AND WHAT WE KNOW AS THE PLAN AND YOU'VE KILLED ALI LARIJANI, ON AND ON OVER THE LAST THREE WEEKS, BUT THE SYSTEM, GOVERNMENT THERE STILL REMAINS IN PLACE.

AND THEY ARE STILL FIRING MISSILES AND THE REGIME HASN'T FALLEN.

TELL ME, ARE YOU SURPRISED, BECAUSE I KNOW THAT THERE IS QUITE A LOT OF SURPRISE THAT THIS VERY TARGETED AND ACCURATE CAMPAIGN HASN'T DONE WHAT YOU HOPED IT WOULD DO YET.

>> NO.

OUR GOAL IS TO DISMANTLE THE THREAT AND THE THREAT IS THE NUCLEAR THREAT, THE BALLISTIC MISSILES, AND THE REGIONAL TERROR.

THAT'S ISRAEL'S GOAL, TO REMOVE A THREAT THAT HAS BEEN BUILDING FOR MANY YEARS.

AND IT IS WORKING VERY WELL.

WE ARE DISMANTLING THIS TERROR MACHINE.

>> WHAT WILL BE THE LINE THAT TELLS YOU THAT YOU HAVE --THAT IT IS DONE.

WHAT IS THE ENDGAME?

BECAUSE LET ME TELL YOU WHAT A FORMER HEAD OF THE IRAN BRANCH OF YOUR OWN MILITARY INTELLIGENCE TOLD "THE NEW YORK TIMES. "

DECAPITATION HAS ITS LIMITATIONS.

I DON'T THINK WE SCRATCHED THE SURFACE IN THE ABILITY OF IRAN TO FIND REPLACEMENTS WHO CAN TAKE OVER FOR THE PEOPLE THAT ARE BEING DECAPITATED.

THAT'S HAPPENING.

THEY KEEP FINDING REPLACEMENTS AND YOU'VE BEEN DOING THIS ASSASSINATION POLICY FOR YEARS ON NUCLEAR SCIENTISTS AND THE LIKE, AND SO WHAT IS --WHERE WILL YOU SAY, OKAY, WE DEGRADED ENOUGH, THAT'S THE END.

WHAT IS THE END?

>> WHEN WE SEE THAT ON THE THREE DIMENSIONS, THE NUCLEAR, BALLISTIC AND TERROR DIMENSIONS, THREAT HAS BEEN ALL BUT, YOU KNOW, PRETTY MUCH REMOVED, AND WE FEEL THAT IRAN CANNOT THREATEN US IN THE FUTURE.

>> ARE YOU CONCERNED, THOUGH, THAT JUST LIKE, YOU KNOW, IN --YOU CERTAINLY DEGRADED HAMAS, YOU DEGRADED HEZBOLLAH, YOU TOOK OUT THEIR LEADERS, YOU TOOK OUT LEADERS FROM, YOU KNOW, FROM IRAN OVER THE SUMMER, AND OTHER, YOU KNOW, REGIONAL LEADERS AND YET THEY KEEP REFILLING THE RANKS AND SOME AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE SAY THAT, YOU KNOW, ACTUALLY A FORMER AMERICAN COMMANDER SAYS FOR EVERY ONE KILLED, THERE IS ANOTHER TEN WHO ARE READY TO TAKE, YOU KNOW TO TAKE UP ARMS.

AGAIN, ARE YOU LOOKING FOR THE REGIME TO COLLAPSE?

ARE YOU LOOKING FOR IT TO --PEOPLE TO RISE UP?

WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING FOR?

>> LOOK, THE ISSUE OF THE RISEUP, THAT'S A DECISION THE IRANIAN PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO MAKE.

THAT'S NOT OURS TO DECIDE.

WE ARE VERY CONSIDERABLY DEGRADING THE REGIME ITSELF, THE BESIEGE, THE TERROR POLICE, THE POLICEMEN THAT HAVE BEEN RUNNING AFTER WOMEN WHO DON'T COVER THEIR HEADS, ET CETERA, ET CETERA, BUT THAT'S NOT OURS TO DECIDE.

WE'RE FOCUSED ON REMOVING THE THREAT TO THE REGION AND THE THREAT TO ISRAEL.

>> "THE WASHINGTON POST" AS YOU PROBABLY KNOW HAS REVEALED A CABLE, A STATE DEPARTMENT CABLE FROM THE U. S. EMBASSY IN JERUSALEM, AND I JUST WANT TO PLAY THIS, YOU SAY IT IS NOT OURS TO SAY, BUT ACTUALLY PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU DID SAY AFTER THE KILLING OF ALI LARIJANI, THIS IS WHAT HE DID SAY, LET ME JUST PLAY THIS.

>> WE ARE UNDERMINING THIS REGIME IN THE HOPE OF GIVING THE IRANIAN PEOPLE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REMOVE IT.

>> HE SAID IT OVER AND AGAIN THAT WE TRIED TO DO THIS TO PAVE THE WAY FOR THE IRANIAN PEOPLE TO REMOVE IT.

BUT I WONDER WHAT YOU MAKE OF THIS CABLE, AS I SAID, FROM THE STATE DEPARTMENT TO THE --SORRY, TO THE STATE DEPARTMENT FROM THE U. S. EMBASSY IN JERUSALEM, IT SAYS, SENIOR ISRAELI OFFICIALS PRIVATELY TOLD U. S. DIPLOMATS THAT IF IRANIANS TAKE TO THE STREETS, QUOTE, THE PEOPLE WILL GET SLAUGHTERED BECAUSE THE IRGC HAS, STILL HAS THE UPPER HAND.

THIS AT THE SAME TIME AS YOUR PRIME MINISTER IS CALLING ON THE PEOPLE TO STAND UP.

HOW DO YOU JUSTIFY IT AND DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT CABLE THAT COMES FROM, YOU KNOW, THE U. S. EMBASSY TO THE STATE DEPARTMENT?

>> WELL, LOOK, ULTIMATELY, CHRISTIANE, I BELIEVE THAT THIS REGIME WILL FALL.

I DON'T KNOW WHEN THOUGH.

IT IS A CORRUPT, OLD, DISCONNECTED AND INCOMPETENT REGIME, PRETTY SIMILAR TO THE SOVIET REGIME IN THE '80s.

ULTIMATELY IT WILL COLLAPSE AND THAT WOULD BE GOOD FOR THE PEOPLE OF IRAN, FOR THE REGION.

WE CANNOT TIE IN THIS AND IT IS NOT A DETERMINISTIC SITUATION WHERE IF WE TAKE THREE OR FOUR SPECIFIC ACTIONS, THIS WILL HAPPEN.

IT IS AN ISSUE OF THE IRANIAN PUBLIC.

BUT WE ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGING THE WHOLE TERROR APPARATUS, THE WHOLE BESIEGE, IRGC REGIME APPARATUS TO MAKE IT AS WEAK AS IT WILL EVER BE OR AT LEAST IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

I UNDERSTAND IT IS NOT EASY AND I CAN'T BE HERE AND GUARANTEE THAT, YOU KNOW, WITHIN DAYS THE REGIME WILL FALL.

>> ARE YOU SURPRISED, BECAUSE THERE HAS BEEN SURPRISE EXPRESSED IN WASHINGTON AT THE LEVEL AND EVEN IN THE GULF STATES AT THE LEVEL OF IRANIAN RETALIATION THAT DOES CONTINUE?

SURE, YOU DEGRADED IT BUT IT STILL CONTINUES.

AND THE LEVEL OF THE CHECKPOINT --THE CHOKEHOLD AND THE RETALIATION ON THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND THE VERY IMPORTANT, YOU KNOW, OIL TRANSPORT WATER WAY THERE, BECAUSE CERTAINLY IN THE UNITED STATES, AGAIN, THERE IS VERY MUCH CONCERN ABOUT THE SPIKE IN OIL PRICES, THE, YOU KNOW, COST OF LIVING GOING UP AND ALL THE ATTENDANT, YOU KNOW, WHATEVER, YOU KNOW, THE FALLOUT FROM DOING THIS KIND OF RETALIATION.

>> I'M NOT SURPRISED.

WE EXPECTED AND WE KNEW THAT IRAN IS BUILDING A FORMIDABLE WAR MACHINE, TERROR MACHINE, NUCLEAR MACHINE, BALLISTIC MISSILE MACHINE AND THAT ONLY MAGNIFIES THE NEED OR EMPHASIZES THE NEED TO HAVE ACTED WHEN WE DID.

>> THERE ARE QUITE A FEW DIPLOMATS CERTAINLY IN THE ARAB WORLD WHO ARE CONCERNED, WHO, YOU KNOW, WHO HAVE A STAKE IN THE NEGOTIATIONS THAT WERE GOING ON BEFORE THIS WAR, EVEN THERE IS REPORTS NOW OF EUROPEAN DIPLOMATS AND NATIONAL SECURITY OFFICIALS WHO ARE BEGINNING MORE AND MORE TO COME OUT AND SAY THAT THEY BELIEVE THAT THERE WAS AN ENDGAME, A SUCCESSFUL POTENTIALLY CERTAINLY ON THE NUCLEAR ISSUE RESOLUTION REGARDING NEGOTIATIONS THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS ENTERED, THE INDIRECT NEGOTIATIONS WITH IRAN VIA THE OMANIS.

MANY PEOPLE ARE SAYING THEY BELIEVE THAT THIS WAS GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.

I SEE YOU SHAKING YOUR HEAD, BECAUSE I KNOW THAT ISRAEL HAS NEVER BELIEVED IN THESE NEGOTIATIONS.

BUT THE TRUTH IS THAT THERE WAS NO IMMINENT THREAT FROM IRAN.

ALL THE INTELLIGENCE SAYS THAT.

DO YOU THINK THAT IT WAS THE --GIVEN WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON NOW FOR THE LAST MORE THAN THREE WEEKS, ISRAELIS DYING, ISRAELIS, YOU KNOW, BEING ON THE RECEIVING END OF MISSILES, ALLIES IN THE GULF, ALL THESE PEOPLE WHO SIGNED THE ABRAHAM ACCORDS WITH, ET CETERA, DO YOU THINK THAT IT IS --THAT THIS WAS THE RIGHT WAY TO GO?

I KNOW IT WAS A DREAM OF NETANYAHU'S, HE SAID IT HIMSELF, MY DREAM FOR 40 YEARS HAS NOW COME TRUE.

>> WELL, YOU ASKED A BUNCH OF -- >> I KNOW, BUT THEY'RE ALL WRAPPED I KNOW, BUT THEY'RE ALL WRAPPED UP IN ONE.

OKAY, GO AHEAD.

>> SO, LOOK, I UNDERSTAND THE IMPATIENCE.

IT IS NATURAL.

BUT A THREAT THAT HAS BEEN BUILDING FOR 40 YEARS CANNOT BE DISMANTLED IN TEN DAYS.

IT TAKES A BIT OF TIME.

AND IF WE HAVE NOT ACTED NOW, WE WOULD HAVE REACHED A POINT WHERE THE THREAT IS JUST NOT MANAGEABLE.

SO, YOU'RE ASKING ABOUT AN IMMINENT THREAT.

WE WERE RESPONSIBLE LEADERSHIP DOESN'T WAIT FOR THE MOMENT THAT THE THREAT IS IMMINENT BECAUSE BY THEN IT IS TOO LATE.

TWO HISTORIC CASES, THE CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS AND NORTH KOREA.

IN 1962, WHEN A THREAT WAS BUILDING ON AMERICA'S SOUTHERN BORDER, AMERICA ACTED IN TIME TO PREVENT THE THREAT FROM BECOMING UNMANAGEABLE.

WHERE AS IN THE '90s, WHEN NORTH KOREA WAS MOVING TOWARDS BECOMING NUCLEAR, THE WORLD DIDN'T ACT.

SO, DO WE WANT TO ADOPT THE KENNEDY STRATEGY OR THE '90s STRATEGY?

WE WANT TO ADOPT THE KENNEDY STRATEGY AND ENSURE THAT IRAN DOES NOT BECOME AN UNMANAGEABLE THREAT.

>> I MEAN, LOOK, YOU KNOW THE CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS THERE WERE ACTUALLY MISSILES, YOU KNOW, READY AND AIMING AT THE UNITED STATES.

IT WAS A REAL IMMINENT THREAT.

THAT WAS AN IMMINENT THREAT AND IT WAS RESOLVED DIPLOMATICALLY.

THAT WAS 1962, WHEN THERE WERE LEADERS, YOU KNOW, WHO BELIEVED AND THE U. N. WAS INVOLVED AND BELIEVED IN THE POWER OF NEGOTIATION.

BUT HERE'S THE THING.

AGAIN, I TRY TO FIGURE OUT HOW YOU SEE AN END TO --YEAH?

>> IF I MAY ON THAT VERY POINT, DONALD TRUMP SENT HIS NEGOTIATORS TO NEGOTIATE WITH IRAN.

AND I BELIEVE HE MEANT TO ACHIEVE A DEAL WHERE THE DEAL IS WHERE THEY DISMANTLE THEIR NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM.

KUSHNER AND WITKOFF GOT THERE, TALKED TO THE IRANIANS, UNDERSTOOD THAT THERE IS TOTALLY NO BEGINNING OF A START BECAUSE THEY SAW THE IRANIANS ARE ADAMANT, SOMETIMES YOU START A NEGOTIATION AND YOU SEE THAT THERE IS ZERO CHANCE AND CALLED UP TRUMP, TOLD THEM THERE IS ZERO CHANCE FOR THESE GUYS TO DISMANTLE THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM, AND HE MADE THE LOGICAL DECISION, WHICH IS TO ACT.

THAT'S ALL THAT HAPPENED HERE.

>> RIGHT.

BUT AS I TOLD YOU, FIRST OF ALL, YOU SAY NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM, AS YOU KNOW, THERE WASN'T AT THE TIME OR NOW AN IMMINENT THREAT OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS DESPITE WHAT THE U. S. SAY ABOUT BUILDING --NO, NO, NO, HOLD ON, I WANT TO ASK YOU A QUESTION.

I WANT TO ASK YOU A QUESTION.

>> LET ME INTERRUPT YOU.

>> OKAY.

>> THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE RESPONSIBLE LEADERS, IF YOU WAIT FOR THE THREAT TO BE IMMINENT, IT IS TOO LATE.

WHEN IS A THREAT IMMINENT?

WHEN THEY HAVE A BOMB?

WHEN THEY HAVE TEN BOMBS?

WHEN THE MISSILE IS ON ITS WAY TO EUROPE OR AMERICA OR ISRAEL?

IS THAT WHEN IT IS IMMINENT?

PRECISELY TO PREVENT US FROM GETTING TO THAT MOMENT WE HAVE TO ACT NOW.

IT IS SUCH A LOGICAL THING THAT I THINK ANYONE WHO IS DECENT SHOULD UNDERSTAND THAT, IF YOU WAIT FOR THE LAST MOMENT, IT IS TOO LATE, JUST LIKE WHAT HAPPENED WITH NORTH KOREA.

>> I'M INTERESTED BECAUSE YOU ARE CONFIRMING THAT IT WASN'T IMMINENT THREAT AT THE TIME.

BUT NOW, BUILDING ON WHAT YOU JUST SAID, I WANT TO ASK YOU THEN WHAT IS THE NEXT LOGICAL STEP BECAUSE THAT HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM, NOT QUITE YET AT BOMB GRADE, BUT THE 60% THAT YOU ALL SAID, YOU REMEMBER IN JUNE, ISRAEL, THE UNITED STATES SAID THEY HAD OBLITERATED IRAN'S NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES.

BUT THAT HIGHLY ENRICHED WAS BURIED SOMEWHERE.

IF, AND THAT COULD BE AN ISSUE, RIGHT?

SO, WHAT DO YOU THINK ISRAEL, THE UNITED STATES SHOULD DO TO GET THAT 400 KILOGRAMS OF HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM BACK?

OTHERWISE THE PROBLEM REMAINS, THE PROBLEM THAT YOU'RE CITING.

>> WELL, THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM IS MUCH, MUCH BROADER THAN JUST THAT PARTICULAR BATCH OF HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM.

WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THOUSANDS OF CENTRIFUGES.

WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THE WEAPONIZATION PROGRAM.

WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THE BALLISTIC MISSILE PROGRAM.

AND IF YOU DISMANTLE EVERYTHING, THEN ULTIMATELY EVEN THAT URANIUM IS USELESS BECAUSE YOU CAN'T JUST SHOOT IT, RIGHT?

CENTRIFUGES SORT OF LIKE ONE OF THOSE LETTUCE DRYER MACHINES WHERE IT TURNS AROUND, REVOLVES AND YOU HAVE TO POUR THAT 60% INTO ADVANCED CENTRIFUGES.

IF WE DISMANTLE THE WHOLE THING, THERE IS NO PROGRAM.

IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO EXTRACT THAT URANIUM OUT OF IRAN.

BUT IT IS PART OF A MUCH BROADER ELEMENT.

YES, WE HAVE TO REMOVE THIS THREAT.

IN FACT, WHAT WE'RE SEEING IRAN DOING NOW, JUST PROVES THAT IT COULD BE MUCH, MUCH WORSE IF WE HADN'T ACTED BECAUSE IT WOULDN'T JUST BE AN OIL BLACKMAIL, IT WOULD BE A NUCLEAR BLACKMAIL.

>> LET ME JUST MOVE ON, BECAUSE AS THERE IS OTHER THINGS TO ASK YOU, INCLUDING ABOUT LEBANON, THE OTHER FRONT THAT HAS BEEN OPENED IN THIS WAR.

AND I KNOW THAT, YOU KNOW, THERE IS POTENTIAL OR ACTUAL GROUND TROOPS GOING IN.

SO, THE LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION PARTY SAYS A DEEP MILITARY MANEUVER INSIDE LEBANON WITHOUT A CLEAR POLITICAL OBJECTIVE WILL DRAG ISRAEL BACK INTO THE QUAGMIRE AND WON'T BRING REAL SECURITY TO THE COMMUNITIES OF THE NORTH.

ARE YOU CONCERNED, GIVEN ISRAEL'S PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE, AND EVENTUAL DECISION TO WITHDRAW FROM ISRAEL, SORRY, FROM LEBANON THAT YOU COULD GET CAUGHT IN ANOTHER MAJOR, YOU KNOW, QUAGMIRE, WHICH LEADS TO MORE DEATHS, MORE INSTABILITY, MORE INSTABILITY IN THAT REGION.

I KNOW YOU THINK --I KNOW THE STRATEGY IS TO CHANGE THE MIDDLE EAST BY ESSENTIALLY BOMBING ALL THE THREATS THAT YOU PERCEIVE.

ARE YOU CONCERNED ABOUT GETTING BACK INTO A GROUND INVASION, OCCUPATION, AND QUAGMIRE?

>> YOU SAID SOMETHING THAT IS A BIT UNFAIR, YOU SAID THAT THERE WAS A FRONT THAT HAS BEEN OPENED.

IT HASN'T BEEN OPENED, HEZBOLLAH STARTED SHOOTING ROCKETS AT US UNILATERALLY.

SECONDLY, IT IS UNFAIR TO SAY WE THINK THAT WE WANT TO BOMB THE MIDDLE EAST TO CHANGE IT.

WE DON'T WANT TO BOMB THE MIDDLE EAST TO CHANGE IT.

WE WANT SECURITY.

THAT'S ALL WE WANT.

WE DON'T WANT A BROADER ISRAEL.

WE DON'T WANT ANYTHING.

WE WANT MY CHILDREN HERE AND UP IN THE NORTH TO LIVE.

THAT'S ALL WE HAVE.

OUR ONLY GOAL IN THIS TINY LITTLE COUNTRY.

THE PROBLEM IS, AND THE MISTAKE THAT HAS BEEN MADE FOR THE PAST FOUR DECADES IS THAT WE ALLOWED THREATS TO GROW AND GROW TO SUCH A SIZE THAT IT BECAME ESSENTIALLY A RING OF FIRE AROUND US.

AND, YES, IT IS PAINFUL TO REMOVE THAT RING OF FIRE.

HEZBOLLAH HAS TAKEN LEBANON AS A HOSTAGE.

WE HAVE NO WAR WITH LEBANON, BUT WE CERTAINLY WANT TO REMOVE HEZBOLLAH AS A THREAT TO OUR PEOPLE, AND THIS WILL END WHEN HEZBOLLAH ENDS, STOPS BEING A THREAT TO OUR PEOPLE.

>> CAN I ASK YOU ABOUT --YOU SAY YOU DON'T WANT GREATER ISRAEL, YOU DON'T WANT ET CETERA, BUT AS YOU KNOW, THE OCCUPIED WEST BANK IS STILL UNDER VERY, VERY LARGE THREAT FROM WITHIN, FROM THE SETTLERS, AND FROM THE SECURITY FORCES, AND FROM THE IDEA OF, YOU KNOW, ANNEXATION BY A DIFFERENT NAME.

THAT'S WHAT YOUR CRITICS SAY IS HAPPENING.

I WANT TO FOCUS ON THIS, YOU KNOW, THIS FAMILY, THE ODAY FAMILY, FOUR MEMBERS WERE KILLED.

MOTHER, FATHER, TWO SONS AGED 7 AND 5.

THEY WERE GOING OUT TO BUY CLOTHES AND SWEETS FOR AID.

AND THE 12-YEAR- OLD SURVIVOR, ONE OF THE BOYS, SAID SOLDIER IDF DRAGGED HIM OUT OF HIS CAR BY HIS HAIR, BEAT HIM AND TOLD HIM WE KILL DOGS.

AND THERE WAS NO ACCOUNTABILITY, OR ANYTHING, AND ALSO A LOT OF THE SETTLERS AS YOU KNOW HAVE UPPED THEIR ATTACKS ON PALESTINIAN FARMS, LAND, HOMES, VILLAGES, SINCE OCTOBER 7th AND EVEN MORE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THIS WAR.

SO, IS THIS A POLICY THAT THE GOVERNMENT APPROVES?

IS THIS A WAY TO MOVE PALESTINIANS OUT OR TERRIFY THEM INTO LEAVING?

>> NO.

AND IN SOME AREAS THERE IS ROUGHLY HALF A MILLION ISRAELIS, OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THEM ARE LAW ABIDING, GOOD PEOPLE, DECENT PEOPLE.

AND THERE IS ABOUT 2 MILLION PALESTINIANS IN THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY.

THERE IS FRICTION AND IN MANY, MANY CASES WE SEE PALESTINIAN TERROR AND KILLING ISRAELIS AND WE ALSO SEE SMALL AMOUNT OF VIOLENCE AGAINST PALESTINIANS.

I HAVE ZERO TOLERANCE FOR ANY SORT OF ILLEGAL ACTIONS AGAINST PALESTINIANS.

AND IT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATED AND I STAND BEHIND ALL INVESTIGATIONS BECAUSE ISRAEL IS A DEMOCRACY WITH RULE OF LAW, AND I INSIST THE LAW ABIDES.

BUT TO PUT IT IN CONTEXT, THERE IS A HUGE AMOUNT OF TERROR AGAINST ISRAELIS AS WELL, AND IT IS TOUGH.

>> WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO CONTINUE THAT PART OF THE CONVERSATION, IT IS A MUCH, MUCH BIGGER STORY AND I WILL COME BACK TO YOU ON THAT.

THERE IS A LOT OF LAW BREAKING GOING ON THERE BY THE SETTLERS AND THE SECURITY FORCES ARE NOT STEPPING IN AND PROTECTING THE VICTIMS OF THIS.

SO, I KNOW YOUR POINT, YOU JUST MADE IT AND WE'LL CONTINUE THAT PART OF THE CONVERSATION.

JUST QUICKLY BEFORE I SAY GOOD-BYE, HOW LONG DO YOU THINK YOUR WAR ON IRAN WILL TAKE?

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

>> YOU KNOW, I WOULDN'T PUT A POINT ON THE CALENDAR.

IT ENDS WHEN THE THREAT ENDS.

>> ALL RIGHT.

WELL, THAT IS A DIFFICULT RED LINE TO SEE AND WE WILL COME BACK TO YOU.

THANK YOU VERY MUCH, NAFTALI BENNETT.

>> THANK YOU, CHRISTIANE.

> >> AS WE MENTIONED, ISRAEL SAYS IT KILLED IRAN'S INTELLIGENCE MINISTER ESMAIL KHATIB ON A STRIKE ON TUESDAY.

IT IS THE LATEST EN A STRONG OF ASSASSINATED IRANIAN OFFICIALS AND YET DESPITE THE BOMBS AND THE NEW LEADER MOJTABA KHAMENEI IN THE SHADOWS, THE REGIME APPEARS IN TACT ERYN AND INCREASING WARNS AND INTIMIDATION TO ANYONE INSIDE THE IRAN WHO PROTESTS THE GOVERNMENT.

MY NEXT GUEST KNOWS THE INNER WORKINGS VERY WELL.

SEYED HOSSEIN MOUSAVIAN JOINS US NOW TO DISCUSS WHERE HE SEES ALL THIS GOING.

WELCOME BACK TO OUR PROGRAM.

>> THANK YOU, CHRISTIANE.

THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

>> SO, I DON'T KNOW WHETHER YOU WERE ABLE TO LISTEN TO OUR PREVIOUS INTERVIEW WITH THE FORMER ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER.

BUT WHERE COULD DO YOU THINK THIS POLICY AS THEY CALL IT DECAPITATION, ELIMINATION, ESSENTIALLY CUTTING THE HEAD OFF THE SNAKE AS THEY WOULD PUT IT, WHERE DOES IT LEAVE THE IRANIAN LEADERSHIP RIGHT NOW?

>> IT IS REALLY DEPENDS TO THE END STATE OF STRATEGY OF PRESIDENT TRUMP, THE UNITED STATES AND ISRAEL.

AND THE U. S. SIDE DURING THE LAST DAYS VERY PUBLICLY OFFICIALLY YOU HAVE HELD A LOT OF STRATEGY, THE AIM OF ATTACKING IRAN WAS REGIME CHANGE.

YOU HAD AN OFFICIAL FROM WHITE HOUSE, DIRECTOR OF ENERGY, PUBLICLY SAID THE GOAL WAS TO CONTROL IRANIAN AND ENERGY.

YOU HAD SENATOR GRAHAM SAYING THAT AFTER REGIME CHANGE WE WILL HAVE TONS OF MONEY.

THEREFORE IT SEEMS AT LEAST PART OF THIS ESTABLISHMENT IS LOOKING FOR REGIME CHANGE AND IRANIAN OIL AND WEALTH.

IF THIS IS THE CASE, I THINK WE ARE GOING TO HAVE ENDLESS WAR.

BUT ISRAELI OBJECTIVE, I THINK, IS DIFFERENT THAN THE U. S. YOU HAD PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU VERY CLEARLY, VERY OFFICIALLY, VERY OPENLY SAID HE IS FOLLOWING THE STRATEGY OF GREATER ISRAEL.

AND YOU HAD THE AMBASSADOR OF THE UNITED STATES, AMBASSADOR TO ISRAEL, WHICH VERY OPENLY SAID ISRAEL HAS RIGHT TO OCCUPY OTHER MIDDLE EASTERN COUNTRIES.

THEREFORE, WHAT -- BASED ON WHAT THE ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER AND OFFICIALS SAID, THE MAIN OBJECTIVE OF ISRAEL IS GREATER ISRAEL, THEREFORE THEY ARE NOT CONVINCED EVEN ABOUT REGIME CHANGE IN IRAN AS THE FORMER SPOKESPERSON OF STATE DEPARTMENT SAID ISRAEL IS NOT CONVINCED ABOUT EVEN DISINTEGRATION OF IRAN.

HE IS AFTER THE TOTAL DESTROYING IRAN.

>> SO LET ME --MR.

MOUSAVIAN, HOLD ON ONE SECOND, I NEED TO ASK YOU A QUESTION HERE.

I CONSIDER YOU SOMEBODY WHO IS ESSENTIALLY, YOU KNOW, CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE PART OF THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT THERE.

SO, THE RESILIENCE OF IT, HOW DO YOU --HOW DO YOU ACCOUNT FOR IT?

BECAUSE I WANT TO PLAY A SOUND BITE FROM IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTER WHO SPOKE TO AL JAZEERA ABOUT THE DECAPITATIONS AND HOW THE REGIME IS STILL OPERATING.

>> I DO NOT KNOW WHY THE AMERICANS AND THE ISRAELIS STILL HAVE NOT UNDERSTOOD THIS POINT.

THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN HAS A STRONG POLITICAL STRUCTURE WITH ESTABLISHED POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INSTITUTIONS.

THE PRESENCE OR ABSENCE OF A SINGLE INDIVIDUAL DOES NOT AFFECT THE STRUCTURE.

OF COURSE, INDIVIDUALS ARE INFLUENTIAL AND EACH PERSON PLAYS THEIR ROLE, SOME BETTER, SOME WORSE, SOME LESS.

BUT WHAT MATTERS IS THAT THE POLITICAL SYSTEM IN IRAN IS A VERY SOLID STRUCTURE.

>> SO, MR.

MOUSAVIAN, HOW SOLID, DO YOU AGREE WITH THE FOREIGN MINISTER?

AND THESE ARE VERY TOP LEADERS NOW WHO HAVE BEEN ASSASSINATED, VERY TOP, FROM YOUR SUPREME LEADER TO THE HEAD OF THE INTELLIGENCE TO THE -- THE NATIONAL SECURITY OFFICIAL, ALI LARIJANI.

HOW MUCH MORE CAN THE GOVERNMENT THERE TOLERATE IN TERMS OF TARGETED ASSASSINATIONS?

>> FIRST OF ALL, ABOUT THE RESILIENCE, CHRISTIANE, I THINK THE WORD LD IS SURPRISED.

OVER THE PAST 20 DAYS, IRAN HAS DEMONSTRATED SIGNIFICANT RESILIENCE.

THE AMERICAN-ISRAELI ASSUMPTION WAS THE REGIME WOULD COLLAPSE 48 HOURS, MAXIMUM 72 HOURS AFTER THEY ASSASSINATE NUMBER ONE, THE SUPREME LEADER.

AND HIGH LEVEL SECURITY MILITARY OFFICIALS.

BUT IRAN RETALIATED JUST THREE HOURS AFTER THAT ASSASSINATION OF THE LEADER AND THE OFFICIALS, ATTACKING THE U. S. MILITARY BASES IN THE REGION, ATTACKING ISRAEL, AND DURING THE PAST 20 DAYS YOU HAVE SEEN HOW POWERFUL THEY ARE RETALIATING.

I THINK PERHAPS ISRAELIS AND AMERICANS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY STUDIED THE HISTORY WHEN IRAN RESISTED EIGHT YEARS INVADED IRAN, THE U. S. , EUROPE, SOVIET UNION, CHINA, INDIA, ALL REGIONAL COUNTRIES, THEY ARE SUPPORTING THE AGGRESSION OF SADDAM AND IRAN WAS ALONG.

AND FOR EIGHT YEARS, IRAN RESISTED AND SADDAM IS OVER 20 YEARS, SADDAM IS GONE.

THEREFORE, I THINK THEY WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE THE RESILIENCE, THE RESISTANCE FOR A MONTH TO COME AND ABOUT THE ASSASSINATION, THE STRATEGY, ISRAELIS, THEY ARE LEADING.

IF YOU GO BACK AGAIN, CHRISTIANE, TO HISTORY, AFTER EVOLUTION OF 1979, UP TO THE U. S.

-ISRAELI ATTACK ON IRAN IN 2025, THOUSANDS OF IRANIAN OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN ASSASSINATED, THOUSANDS.

AND DURING EIGHT YEARS WAR, AFTER WAR, UNDER DIFFERENT CIRCUMSTANCES, WHAT WE HAVE NEVER SEEN REGIME COLLAPSE OR DYSFUNCTIONALITY.

DISTANT DISINTEGRATION OF THE SYSTEM.

AFTER THE FIRST U. S. ATTACK, 2025, UP TO NOW, I THINK MORE THAN 200 OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN ASSASSINATED.

BUT YOU SEE STILL THIS IS IN TACT.

THEREFORE I REALLY DON'T BELIEVE THE ASSASSINATION, THE STRATEGY WOULD BRING REGIME COLLAPSE, PERHAPS, IT COULD BE MORE COUNTERPRODUCTIVE FOR ISRAEL, FOR THE U. S. , BECAUSE DURING PAST 20 DAYS, YOU HAVE SEEN THE IRANIANS HAVE BEEN UNITED.

THEY ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE SECURITY AND STABILITY OF THE COUNTRY, ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY HAVE SEEN HUNDREDS OF HOMES, HOSPITALS, SCHOOLS, EVEN HISTORICAL MONUMENTS HAVE BEEN DESTROYED BY THE ATTACK.

NOW THEY ARE VERY MUCH CONCERNED ABOUT THE SECURITY AND STABILITY.

THAT'S WHY THEY HAVE BEEN UNITED.

THEY ARE IN THE STREETS, THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE EVERY DAY THEY ARE IN THE STREETS IN ORDER TO DEFEND THEIR INTEGRITY AND SOVEREIGNTY OF THE COUNTRY.

BUT HAVING SAID THAT, CHRISTIANE, WE SHOULD NOT MAKE A MISTAKE, MAJORITY OF IRANIANS, THEY ARE NOT SATISFIED WITH THE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SITUATION OF THE COUNTRY.

>> RIGHT, I WAS GOING TO ASK YOU ABOUT THAT.

I WAS GOING TO ASK YOU ABOUT THAT.

LET ME ASK YOU A QUESTION, BECAUSE THIS IS CRUCIAL, RIGHT, IT IS CRUCIAL.

AND NOBODY HAS ANSWERED IT.

YOU SAY UNITY.

YOU KNOW PERFECTLY WELL THAT THERE IS A CADRE OF IRANIANS INSIDE AND OUTSIDE IRAN WHO ARE CELEBRATING THEY ARE CELEBRATING BECAUSE THEY THINK THIS IS AN OPPORTUNITY TO BE LIBERATED FROM 47 YEARS OF CRUEL AND RUTHLESS REPRESSION BY THE REGIME.

MOST NOTABLY, AS YOU SAY, THEY HAVE LEGITIMATE, YOU KNOW, COMPLAINTS ABOUT SOCIAL RESTRICTIONS, ABOUT THE ECONOMY, ABOUT EVERYTHING.

AND YET THEY WERE BRUTALLY CRUSHED IN JANUARY.

THIS IS A VERY DIFFERENT DYNAMIC NOW TO ALL THE THINGS THAT YOU'VE TOLD --YOU'VE BEEN TELLING ME ABOUT.

WHAT -- IRAN CAN NEVER MEET THEIR --THIS GOVERNMENT CAN NEVER MEET THEIR NEEDS, CAN THEY?

WHY SHOULD THESE PEOPLE WANT TO SEE THE CONTINUATION OF A GOVERNMENT THAT FOR 47 YEARS HAS CRUSHED THEM TO THE POINT THAT THEY ARE CELEBRATING BEING BOMBED BY FOREIGN COUNTRIES?

>> WE NEED TO HAVE A DISTINCTION ON TWO ISSUES.

ONE, THE FACT THAT MAJORITY OF IRANIANS THEY ARE NOT SATISFIED WITH ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SITUATION OF THE COUNTRY ABOUT THE INFLATION, ABOUT PRODUCTIVITY, ABOUT CORRUPTION, ABOUT DYSFUNCTIONALITY OF THE SYSTEM AND THEY ARE ASKING FOR MAJOR, MAJOR REFORMS AND BETTER LIFE.

NO DOUBT ABOUT IT.

NO QUESTION.

BUT WHEN THE ISSUE --WHEN THE NATION IS FACED WITH FOREIGN ATTACKS, THREATENING THE INTEGRITY AND SOVEREIGNTY OF THE COUNTRY, THEY HAVE ALREADY UNITED AND NOW THEY ARE UNITED IN ORDER TO DEFEND THE INTEGRITY OF THEIR COUNTRY.

>> YOU TOLD ME THAT.

I UNDERSTAND.

BUT I WANT TO ASK YOU THE DAY AFTER, LET'S SAY THIS GOVERNMENT STAYS IN PLACE, I ALREADY READ THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS CALLED IN MEMBER OF THE IRGC, THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARD, TO SAY HOW ARE WE GOING TO MEET THE DEMANDS OF OUR DISSATISFIED PEOPLE AND EVEN IF WE SURVIVE, THEY ARE GOING TO PROTEST AGAIN AND THEY ARE GOING TO WANT CHANGE.

SO, WHO IS GOING TO COME OUT THE WINNER IF THIS REGIME STANDS?

IF IT IS THE MILITARY, IRGC, IT IS GOING TO BE VERY TOUGH ON THE PEOPLE.

AND IRAN DOESN'T HAVE THE WHEREWITHAL TO ACTUALLY MEET THE LEGITIMATE NEEDS OF THE PEOPLE, THE ECONOMIC NEEDS OF THE PEOPLE.

NOR DO THEY NECESSARILY WANT TO HAVE A THEOCRACY.

SO, HOW DO YOU SEE THE DAY AFTER?

>> I BELIEVE IF THE WAR IS FINISHED TODAY, THE PROBLEM FOR THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT, IRANIAN ESTABLISH WOULD BE AT LEAST DOUBLE OR --FOR WAR BECAUSE THEY HAVE ALREADY THE ECONOMIC PROBLEMS, SANCTIONS, INFLATION, DEPRECIATION OF IRANIAN CURRENCY, A LOT OF PROBLEMS BEFORE THE WAR.

NOW THEY HAVE THE DAMAGES, THE DESTRUCTION OF BIG PART OF THE COUNTRY AFTER THE WAR.

THEREFORE, THIS WOULD BE A DOUBLE BUILD OF THE IRANIAN ESTABLISHMENT.

I REALLY CANNOT IMAGINE THEY CAN SUSTAIN THE TYPE OF GOVERNING SYSTEM, WHICH THEY HAVE BEEN DOING IN THE LAST TWO OR THREE DECADES.

AND IF THE WAR IS GOING TO BE FINISHED TOMORROW, THEY NEED SUBSTANTIAL REFORMS IN ORDER TO SATISFY THE PEOPLE DOMESTICALLY AND IN FOREIGN POLICY.

THEY HAVE TO SOLVE THE PROBLEM WITH THE REGIONAL COUNTRIES.

THEY NEED TO HAVE A COMPROMISE WITH THE U. S. , THEY NEED TO END --WITH THE UNITED STATES AND VICE VERSA, THE U. S. ALSO NEEDS TO END HOSTILITY WITH IRAN IN ORDER TO LIFT THE SANCTIONS.

OTHERWISE, IRAN WOULD HAVE MUCH MORE PROBLEM AFTER THE WAR.

>> THAT'S A HUGE, HUGE IF.

I KNOW THAT YOU'RE PART OF THE SYSTEM.

DO YOU THINK, WELL, ALREADY, THE SYSTEM THAT IS THREATENING PEOPLE DON'T COME OUT, ORDERS, SHOOT TO KILL, YOU KNOW, INTERNET IS --ALL THESE KINDS OF REALLY RUTHLESS AND REPRESSIVE MEASURES ARE IN PLACE RIGHT NOW.

DO YOU THINK THAT SYSTEM IS READY TO DO WHAT YOU'VE JUST SAID.

MAJOR REFORMS TO SATISFY THE NEEDS OF THE PEOPLE?

>> YOU KNOW, CHRISTIANE, YOU --PERHAPS YOU REMEMBER I WAS ARRESTED IN 2007 AND I WAS JAILED BECAUSE I WAS OPPOSING FOREIGN POLICY ON NUCLEAR, ON A LOT OF ISSUES.

AND YOU MAY NOT KNOW I HAVE HAD --IN 2022 AND I HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO GO BACK TO MY COUNTRY ABOUT FOUR, FIVE YEARS.

THEREFORE, I HAVE MY OWN PROBLEM WITH THE SYSTEM MORE THAN MANY IRANIAN OUTSIDE.

I'M TALKING ABOUT THE NATIONAL INTEREST OF IRAN, NATIONAL INTEREST OF THE U. S. THE CURRENT WAR IS NEITHER IN THE NATIONAL INTEREST OF THE U. S. NOR IRAN, NOR THE REGION.

THEREFORE WE NEED DIPLOMACY.

WE NEED PERHAPS A VERY INFLUENTIAL MEDIATOR TO COME TO BRING AN END, A COMPROMISE BETWEEN IRAN AND THE U. S. AND I'M TALKING ABOUT WAR IS REALLY VITAL.

I REALLY DON'T KNOW WHERE THIS WAR WILL END OR NOT.

I DON'T KNOW EVEN IF THE WAR WILL END THE GOVERNING SYSTEM OF IRAN WOULD GO FOR REFORMS.

BUT WHAT I SAY IF THE WAR IS ENDED TODAY, THE SYSTEM NEEDS HUGE REFORMS IN GOVERNING SYSTEM.

I MEAN, THEY NEED FUNCTIONALITY.

THEY HAVE BEEN REALLY DYSFUNCTIONAL.

THEY NEED A BIG CHANGE IN FOREIGN RELATIONS.

>> ALL RIGHT, I APPRECIATE IT.

THANK YOU VERY MUCH, MR.

MOUSAVIAN, FOR BEING ON WITH US.

FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE WAR BEGAN, IRAN SAYS THE U. S. AND ISRAEL TARGETED PARTS OF ITS OIL AND NATURAL GAS FACILITIES CAUSING PRICES TO SPIKE.

THIS AS THE WORLD FACES THE BIGGEST ENERGY SUPPLY DISRUPTION IN HISTORY, FOLLOWING IRAN'S BLOCKADE OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

OUR NEXT GUEST KNOWS THIS MAJOR PASSAGE WELL.

AND HIGHLIGHTS ITS GEOGRAPHIC CHOKE POINT IN HIS BOOK, FORMER STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL AND AUTHOR EDWARD FISHMAN SPEAKS TO WALTER ISAACSON ABOUT THE IMPACT OF U. S. MILITARY INTERVENTION IN IRAN ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.

>> THANK YOU, CHRISTIANE.

AND EDWARD FISHMAN, WELCOME BACK TO THE SHOW.

>> THANKS SO MUCH FOR HAVING ME ON TODAY, WALTER.

>> YOUR BOOK "CHOKEPOINTS" TALKS ABOUT TWO TYPES OF CHOKE POINTS, GEOGRAPHIC ONES AND ECONOMIC ONES.

LET'S START WITH THE MOST FAMOUS GEOGRAPHIC ONE, THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

EXPLAIN TO ME WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND WHETHER THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION SHOULD HAVE FIGURED THAT OUT EARLIER.

>> WALTER, THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS BY FAR THE WORLD'S MOST IMPORTANT MARITIME CHOKE POINTS.

OF ALL THE CHOKE POINTS, PANAMA CANAL, STRAITS OF MELLARKIA, THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ TAKES THE CAKE.

20% OF GLOBAL OIL SUPPLIES ON A DAILY BASIS BEFORE THIS WAR WENT THROUGH THAT NARROW WATER WAY AND ABOUT THE SAME IN TERMS OF LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS.

SO WHAT WE'RE FACING NOW, BECAUSE IRAN HAS CLOSED THE STRAIT IS A DRAMATIC SHOCK TO THE GLOBAL ENERGY SYSTEM.

IN FACT, THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY, THE IEA, HAS SAID THIS IS THE LARGEST DISRUPTION IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD OIL MARKET ALREADY.

WE'RE ONLY 2 1/2 WEEKS INTO THIS WAR.

I THINK THE THING THAT SURPRISED THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AND BY THE WAY THE MARKETS AND CONFOUNDED MANY ANALYSTS IS THAT THE ASSUMPTION WAS THAT IF IRAN WERE TO CLOSE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, THEY WOULD HAVE TO PHYSICAL LI LY BLOCK IT, LIE THOUSANDS OF SEA MINES THAT MADE SAILING THROUGH THE STRAIT IMPOSSIBLE FOR ANYONE, INCLUDING IRANIAN VESSELS THEMSELVES.

SO I THINK THE ASSUMPTION WAS THAT IRAN WOULDN'T DO THAT, BECAUSE IF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WAS MINED SO HEAVILY, EVEN IRAN'S OWN OIL TANKERS COULDN'T GET OUT OF THE STRAIT.

AND, OF COURSE, IRAN DEPENDS ON SELLING OIL TO IRAN'S ECONOMY.

WHAT IRAN HAS SHOWED IS THAT JUST BY VIRTUE OF USING LOW COST DRONES AND IRAN HAS BECOME ONE OF THE WORLD'S LEADING PRODUCERS OF THESE DRONES, THEY CAN DISRUPT SHIPPING.

THEY ONLY ATTACKED A BIT OVER A DOZEN SHIPS AND, YOU KNOW, BEFORE THE WAR, AS MANY AS 100 SHIPS, COMMERCIAL VESSELS WOULD GO THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ ON A DAILY BASIS AND JUST BY ATTACKING ABOUT A DOZEN OR SO, THEY HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CHANGE THE RISK CALCULUS OF THE ENTIRE SHIPPING INDUSTRY.

>> PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS SAYING OUR NATO ALLIES SHOULD HELP, BUT WHAT ABOUT NATO ALLIES LIKE, I THINK ITALY IS DOING IN FRANCE WHO MAY WANT TO HAVE DISCUSSIONS WITH IRAN AND MAYBE THEIR SHIPS GET THROUGH?

>> YEAH, I MEAN, THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS BOTH THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT AND ITALIAN GOVERNMENT HAVE REACHED OUT TO THE IRANIAN REGIME ASKING WHETHER THEIR SHIPS COULD GET THROUGH.

I THINK THIS IS ONLY GOING TO CONTINUE.

IN SOME WAYS IT IS REMARKABLE THAT OIL HASN'T GONE EVEN HIGHER, WE'RE ALREADY IN THE HUNDREDS, BUT I THINK IF THIS LASTS FOR WEEKS WE COULD EASILY GET TO 150, EVEN PUSHING TO $200 A BARREL.

ALL TIME RECORD SET DURING THE FINANCIAL CRISIS BACK IN 2008, 2009 WAS AROUND $147 A BARREL.

THIS COULD GET A LOT WORSE IF THE CRISIS CONTINUES.

AND I THINK SO LONG AS THIS STRAIT IS CLOSED, I EXPECT MANY MORE COUNTRIES EVEN BEYOND THE ONES THAT HAVE BEEN PUBLICLY REPORTED ARE GOING TO REACH OUT TO THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT TO SEE IF THEY CAN CUT A SEPARATE DEAL.

>> YOUR BOOK IS NOT JUST ABOUT GEOGRAPHIC CHOKE POINTS, YOU HAVE A REALLY INTERESTING CONCEPT, YOU DEVELOPED HISTORICALLY ON ECONOMIC CHOKE POINTS.

WHY DON'T YOU TELL US WHAT THOSE ARE.

>> SURE.

SO, THROUGHOUT HISTORY WE REALLY HAVE FOCUSED ON THESE GEOGRAPHIC CHOKE POINTS AND A BIG REASON WHY THE OTTOMAN EMPIRE WAS ABLE TO BE SO POWERFUL FOR AS LONG AS IT WAS IS THEY CONTROLLED THE --WHICH TO THIS DAY IS SUCH A CRITICAL MARITIME CHOKE POINT.

BUT WHAT HAPPENED IN THE 1990s WHEN THE COLD WAR ENDED AND YOU HAD CHINA AND RUSSIA ENTER THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM, ENTER NATIONAL SUPPLY INS, YOU HAD PARTS OF THE ECONOMY WHERE ONE COUNTRY HAS A DOMINANT POSITION AND THERE ARE FEW IF ANY SUBSTITUTES.

SO IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT, THE DOLLAR, WHICH DOES KIND OF FUNCTION AS THE LIFE BLOOD OF THE ENTIRE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM, 90% OF ALL FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRANSACTIONS HAPPEN IN DOLLARS, THAT PROVIDES THE UNITED STATES WITH A CHOKE POINT OVER THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE SEE PLAYING OUT RIGHT NOW IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ OVER THE GLOBAL OIL ECONOMY.

LAST YEAR AS WELL WE SAW THAT CHINA POSSESSES A SIMILAR CHOKE POINT OVER RARE EARTH MINERALS.

MINERALS THAT ARE CRITICAL FROM EVERYTHING FROM PRODUCING MISSILES AND DRONES TO NORMAL ELECTRIC VEHICLES HERE IN THE UNITED STATES.

CHINA WAS ABLE TO SHOW THAT BY WITHHOLDING EXPORTS OF RARE EARTH MINERALS AND THEY REFINE ABOUT 90% OF THE GLOBAL SUPPLY, WITHIN A FEW WEEKS FORD HAD TO SHUTTER ONE OF ITS FACTORIES FOR ITS EXPLORER SUV.

AND SO THAT'S THE TYPE OF CONTROL THAT THESE INVISIBLE CHOKE POINTS LIKE THE DOLLAR, LIKE CHINA'S RARE EARTHS HAVE GIVEN GREAT POWERS TODAY.

>> YOU TALK ABOUT THE DOLLAR BEING AN INVISIBLE CHOKE POINT, COULD THE IRANIANS SAY WE'LL LET SHIPS THROUGH IF THEY TRADE IN SAY THE CHINESE CURRENCY INSTEAD AND THAT WOULD UNDERMINE OUR POWER WITH THE DOLLAR?

>> I THINK THE IRANIANS HAVE QUITE A BIT OF LEVERAGE RIGHT NOW.

I THINK THAT THEY CAN DEMAND QUITE A BIT TO ALLOW SHIPS THROUGH THE STRAIT.

I THINK ONE OF THE BIG MISCONCEPTIONS THAT I HEAR SOMETIMES TALKED ABOUT IN THE U. S. IS THAT TRUMP COULD DO A TACO, THIS ACRONYM, TRUMP ALWAYS CHICKENS OUT.

WE HAVE SEEN THAT WITH TARIFFS WHEN TRUMP HAS IMPOSED BIG TARIFFS THAT LED TO A STOCK MARKET CORRECTION IN THE UNITED STATES, HE'S OFTEN TIMES SUSPENDED THEM FOR 90 DAYS OR 180 DAYS.

THE DIFFERENCE IS WITH TARIFFS, TRUMP UNILATERALLY CAN SUSPEND THE TARIFFS.

BUT WITH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, EVEN IF THE U. S. WERE TO SAY TODAY, WE'RE NO LONGER GOING TO BE ATTACKING SITES IN IRAN, THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT COULD SAY, WELL, WAIT, WE WANT MORE.

WE WANT FOR INSTANCE OIL TO BE PRICED IN R&B.

AND A MORE LIKELY ASK WOULD BE FOR THEM TO ASK THE U. S. TO PICK UP AND LEAVE THEIR BASES IN THE GULF.

THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT SAID MULTIPLE TIMES THAT THE BASES, YOU KNOW, THAT THE U. S. HAS IN THE GULF REGION HAVE BEEN USED AS LAUNCHPADS TO ATTACK IRAN.

AND SO MY GUESS IS IF THE U. S. WERE TO --IF TRUMP WERE TO TAKE THAT MOVE TODAY AND SAY THE WAR IS OVER, THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT MAY ACTUALLY ASK FOR MORE.

>> HOW DID SANCTIONS GET ORGANIZED UNDER PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH AND THEN PRESIDENT OBAMA?

>> I'M GLAD YOU ASKED THIS BECAUSE I THINK THERE IS AN INTERESTING ANALOGY TO WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

SO, IN 2005, RIGHT AFTER GEORGE W. BUSH WAS RE-ELECTED, U. S. WAS FIGHTING TWO WARS, RIGHT?

AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ AND NEITHER WAS GOING VERY WELL.

AND TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE, THE REASON WE GOT INVOLVED IN IRAQ WAS BECAUSE SADDAM HUSSEIN WAS DEVELOPING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION.

WELL, RIGHT WHEN BUSH WAS RE-ELECTED, A SURVEY GROUP CAME OUT AND SAID, WELL, SADDAM DIDN'T ACTUALLY HAVE WMD AND TO MAKE MATTERS EVEN MORE AWKWARD, JUST AROUND THAT TIME, IRAN ELECTED A POPULIST HARD-LINER, MAHMOUD AHMADINEJAD AS THEIR PRESIDENT, AND HE IMMEDIATELY SUPERCHARGED THEIR NUCLEAR PROGRAM.

AND SO THE UNITED STATES WAS FIGHTING A WAR AGAINST IRAQ TO GET RID OF A FAKE NUCLEAR PROGRAM, WHERE AS RIGHT NEXT TO IRAQ THERE WAS A COUNTRY THAT WAS MULTIPLE TIMES LARGER, MORE POWERFUL, THAT WAS ACTUALLY DEVELOPING INDUSTRIAL SCALE NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES.

AND SO PUT GEORGE W. BUSH IN A BIND BECAUSE HE DIDN'T WANT TO START ANOTHER WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

HE DIDN'T THINK SANCTIONS COULD WORK BECAUSE THE OLD PARADIGM WAS YOU NEEDED FULL SUPPORT AT THE U. N. AND WILLING TO USE A BLOCKADE.

THANKFULLY THERE WAS A GENTLEMAN AT THE TREASURY DEPARTMENT, STEWART LEVY, THE FIRST TREASURY UNDER SECRETARY WHO TOOK BUSH'S SKEPTICISM ABOUT SANCTIONS AS A PERSONAL CHALLENGE AND TRIED TO THINK, IS THERE A WAY WE CAN ACTUALLY INNOVATE SANCTIONS AND PUT MORE PRESSURE ON IRAN.

AND THERE IS ONE DAY HE WAS IN BAHRAIN AT A HOTEL EATING BREAKFAST FLIPPING THROUGH THE FINANCIAL TIMES WHEN HE CAME ACROSS AN ARTICLE ABOUT A SWISS BANK THAT CUT TIES WITH IRAN OF ITS OWN VOLITION.

AND A LIGHTBULB WENT OFF IN LEVY'S HEAD WHERE HE REALIZED MAYBE I DON'T NEED TO PERSUADE THE ENTIRE U. N. TO BLOCK TRADE WITH IRAN.

I CAN JUST MANIPULATE THE RISK CALCULUS OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR, I CAN GO TO BANKS IN LONDON AND FRANKFURT AND HONG KONG AND DUBAI AND BRING WITH ME DOSSIERS SHOWING THEM HOW IRAN OFTEN TIMES WAS USING THEIR BANKING NETWORK TO FUND THEIR NUCLEAR PROGRAM AND PERSUADE NINE OUT OF TEN OF THEM TO CUT TIES WITH IRAN OF THEIR OWN VOLITION.

FOR THE ONE OF TEN WHO REFUSED, CO-HE COULD THREATEN TO CUT THEM OFF FROM THE DOLLAR.

YOU KEEP DOING BUSINESS WITH IRAN OR YOU CONTINUE TO HAVE ACCESS TO THE DOLLAR BUT YOU DON'T HAVE BOTH.

AND THAT WAS THE KEY.

THAT'S HOW U. S. SANCTIONS HAVE WORKED EVER SINCE.

MANIPULATING THE RISK CALCULUS OF THE OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR.

IT HAS BEEN ABLE TO MANIPULATE THE RISK CALCULUS OF THE ENTIRE SHIPPING INDUSTRY IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS.

>> IN THE HISTORY OF SANCTIONS AND HOW THEY DEVELOPED, YOU PLAY A ROLE.

TELL ME WHAT YOU DID WHEN YOU WERE IN GOVERNMENT TO MOVE IT FORWARD, ESPECIALLY ON IRAN, BUT I THINK ON RUSSIA TOO.

>> SO I WAS PART OF THE TEAM THAT ACTUALLY IMPLEMENTED THE OIL SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN.

SO, STEWART LEVY, THE AFOREMENTIONED LEADER OF THE TREASURY DEPARTMENT SANCTIONS DIVISION, IS A REPUBLICAN, BUT HE WAS REAPPOINTED BY BARACK OBAMA.

SEEMS A BIT QUAINT IN 2026, AMERICAN POLITICS, BUT THAT IS SOMETHING THAT OCCURRED.

AND HE CONTINUED THAT STRATEGY THROUGH THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION AND HANDED IT OFF TO HIS SUCCESSOR DAVID COHEN.

SO MY JOB WAS TO GO TO THE BIG OIL BUYERS FROM IRAN, PLACES IN ASIA, LIKE JAPAN, AND KOREA, AND INDIA AND CHINA, AND BASICALLY LET THEM KNOW IF THEY CONTINUED BUYING IRANIAN OIL, THEY MAY LOSE ACCESS TO THE U. S. DOLLAR SYSTEM.

AND I CAN TELL YOU, WALTER, WHEN MY COLLEAGUES AND I WERE WORKING ON THOSE SANCTIONS, IN 2013, WE WERE SKEPTICAL, FRANKLY THAT THEY WOULD WORK.

IT FELT LIKE A BIT OF A LONG SHOT GIVEN THE IMPORTANCE OF OIL IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.

AND TO OUR SURPRISE, WE ACTUALLY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN GETTING IRAN'S OIL SALES TO DECLINE FROM 2.

5 MILLION BARRELS A DAY TO 1 MILL BARRELS A DAY, 60% DROP IN JUST ABOUT 18 MONTHS.

>> YOU THINK THAT'S WHAT DROVE THEM TO THE NUCLEAR DEAL?

>> OH, CERTAINLY.

AND IN SOME WAYS WE GOT LUCKY AND YOU WOULD KNOW THIS AS WELL AS ANYONE, HISTORICAL CONTINGENCY MATTERS.

MAHMOUD AHMADINEJAD, THAT HARD-LINE PRESIDENT, WAS TERM LIMITED.

SO THEY HAD AN ELECTION IN JUNE OF 2013, AND TWO WEEKS BEFORE THE ELECTION A GENTLEMAN BY THE NAME OF HASSAN ROHANI IN A TELEVISED DEBATE CAME OUT AND SAID WE NEED TO NEGOTIATE WITH THE WEST OVER OUR NUCLEAR PROGRAM BECAUSE WE DESPERATELY NEED SANCTIONS RELEAF.

AND AUTHORITARIAN SYSTEMS, YOU ALMOST NEVER HEAR PEOPLE SPEAK THE TRUTH AND THAT LED TO SUCH A GROUNDSWELL OF SUPPORT THAT TWO WEEKS LATER, HE WON 50% OF THE VOTE IN AN EIGHT CANDIDATE RACE, WHICH IS ALMOST UNHEARD OF.

AND I THINK WHAT THAT DID WAS EVEN THOUGH AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI IS THE DECISIONMAKER AT THE TIME, HE SAW THE GROUNDSWELL OF SUPPORT IN IRAN FOR A NUCLEAR DEAL TO DELIVER SANCTIONS RELIEF AND THAT GAVE ROHANI AND HIS FOREIGN MINISTER THE POLITICAL CAPITAL THEY NEEDED TO CUT A DEAL WITH THE UNITED STATES AND OUR ALLIES.

SAO CERTAINLY THE SANCTIONS WERE THE KEY TO UNLOCKING THAT NUCLEAR DEAL THAT STARTED IN 2013 AND CULMINATED TWO YEARS LATER IN 2015.

>> PRESIDENT TRUMP WHO IS NOT A BIG BELIEVER IN SANCTIONS ACTUALLY IMPOSED SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA AND RUSSIAN OIL AND EVEN ON I THINK TARIFFS FOR INDIA, FOR BUYING RUSSIAN OIL.

AND ON THE TWO BIGGEST OIL COMPANIES IN RUSSIA AND NOW HE'S LIFTED THOSE SANCTIONS.

EXPLAIN WHETHER THOSE SANCTIONS MADE SENSE IN THE FIRST PLACE AND WHAT WILL HAPPEN NOW THAT HE SEEMS TO HAVE JUST LIFTED HIM.

>> SO I WOULD AGREE THAT TRUMP HAS NEVER BEEN A BIG BELIEVER IN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA.

I THINK HIS INTERPRETATION OF THE RUSSIA- UKRAINE WAR IS DIFFERENT.

FROM MINE AND MANY OTHERS, WHICH IS THAT UKRAINE ACTUALLY BEARS A LOT OF THE BLAME AS OPPOSED TO RUSSIA.

SETTING THAT ASIDE, LAST YEAR HE DID START IMPOSING SOME PRESSURE ON RUSSIAN OIL.

FIRST, IN AUGUST, HE IMPOSED REALLY STEEP TARIFFS ON INDIA.

BECAUSE INDIA WAS BUYING RUSSIAN OIL, THOUGH I KNOW THERE WERE OTHER CONCERNS HE HAD AROUND PRIME MINISTER MODI'S REFUSAL TO NEGOTIATION HIM FOR THE NOBEL PEACE PRIZE, BUT THEN THE REAL TEA CAME TWO MONTHS LATER.

IN OCTOBER OF LAST YEAR, THE TREASURY DEPARTMENT IMPOSED SANCTIONS ON ROSNEFT AND LUKOIL.

THEY ALSO SAID THAT ANYONE TRANSACTING WITH ROSNEFT AND LUKOIL COULD BE SANCTIONED BY THE UNITED STATES, THEY COULD BE CUT OFF FROM THE DOLLAR.

WELL, IMMEDIATELY THESE BIG REFINERIES IN INDIA LIKE RELIANCE SAID WE CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE ACCESS TO THE DOLLAR, SO THEY STARTED IMMEDIATELY CUTTING BACK THEIR PURCHASES OF RUSSIAN OIL.

THE INDIAN REFINERIES WENT FROM BUYING AROUND 2 MILLION BARRELS A DAY TO 1 MILLION BARRELS A DAY AT THE BEGIN OF THE YEAR.

A REALLY RAPID DECLINE.

AND WE HAD A SITUATION WHERE RUSSIAN OIL WAS SELLING AT ABOUT A $30 DISCOUNT TO THE INTERNATIONAL BENCHMARK.

SO, FOR INSTANCE, IF SAUDI ARABIA WAS SELLING OIL FOR $65 A BARREL, RUSSIA COULD SELL MOLECULARLY IDENTICAL OIL FOR $35 A BARREL.

SO YOU CAN JUST IMAGINE THE HIT IF THAT WAS HAPPENING, THAT WAS GIVING TO THE KREMLIN AND IN FEBRUARY OF THIS YEAR, SO JUST A MONTH AGO, THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT HAD THE SINGLE WORST MONTH THEY EVER HAD FOR OIL REVENUES AND SO THEY WERE UNDER SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE BECAUSE OF THESE SANCTIONS.

I THINK BECAUSE OF THIS OIL PRICE SPIKE, THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAS COMPLETELY UNDONE THAT POLICY AND JUST TWO WEEKS AGO, THEY EASED SANCTIONS ON INDIA'S PURCHASES OF RUSSIAN OIL AND LAST WEEK THEY ACTUALLY EXPANDED THAT, SUCH THAT NOW ANYONE IN THE WORLD CAN BUY RUSSIAN OIL WITHOUT A THREAT OF U. S. SECONDARY SANCTIONS.

AND WHAT THAT HAS MEANT IS THAT RUSSIAN OIL, WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY SELLING, LIKE I SAID, 25, $30 DISCOUNT, IS NOW ACTUALLY SELLING AT A PREMIUM TO GLOBAL OIL BENCHMARKS BECAUSE RUSSIA IS ONE OF THE BIG PRODUCERS THAT ACTUALLY DOESN'T RELY ON THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

THIS HAS LED TO A WINDFALL FOR THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT ON THE ORDER OF 150 MILLION TO $200 MILLION EACH DAY.

SO, UNFORTUNATELY I DO THINK THAT THIS HAS TAKEN A HUGE AMOUNT OF LEVERAGE OFF FROM VLADIMIR PUTIN AND MADE IT MUCH HARDER FOR US TO ACTUALLY PUSH HIM TO AGREE TO A JUST PEACE IN UKRAINE.

>> HAVE SANCTIONS EVER WORKED, THOUGH, AGAINST RUSSIA?

>> I THINK WE NEED TO BE REALISTIC ABOUT WHAT SANCTIONS CAN ACHIEVE.

I'VE ALWAYS SAID THAT CHANGING PUTIN'S CALCULUS MAY BE TOO HIGH - -TOO TALL OF AN ORDER.

IF YOU DEFINE THE GOAL OF SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA AS ATTRITION, BASICALLY WEAKENING THE RUSSIAN MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX TO MAKE IT HARDER FOR PUTIN TO EXECUTE HIS IMPERIALIST AGENDA, SANCTIONS HAVE CERTAINLY WORKED.

AND I THINK THIS IS THE NG WE DON'T OFTEN THINK ABOUT.

WHAT WOULD THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY LOOK LIKE TODAY IF THERE WERE NO SANCTIONS?

THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY WOULD BE FAR MORE ROBUST, FAR MORE WEALTHY, HAVE A FAR MORE FEARSOME MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX THAN THEY WOULD OTHERWISE HAVE.

SO, EVEN THOUGH SANCTIONS HAVEN'T DELIVERED THIS BRASS RING OF A PEACE DEAL IN UKRAINE, I STILL THINK ON BALANCE THEY'RE DOING A LOT MORE GOOD THAN HARM.

>> FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE, MADELEINE ALBRIGHT, USED TO TALK ABOUT ARROWS IN THE QUIVER THAT WE HAD IN TERMS OF -- MILITARY, BUT THEN ECONOMIC ONES THAT YOU DESCRIBED AND SANCTIONS AND EVENTUALLY SOFT POWER AND ALL.

OVER THE PAST TEN, 15, 20 YEARS, THANKS TO YOU AND STEWART LEVY AND OTHERS, THE ECONOMIC ARROWS HAVE BECOME MORE IMPORTANT.

WE NOW ARE BEGINNING TO SEE THE END OF THAT?

>> I THINK THERE ARE TWO REASONS THAT REALLY LED TO THE RISE OF SANCTIONS IN U. S. FOREIGN POLICY.

ONE WAS THE CREATION OF THESE CHOKE POINTS, THE FACT THAT WITH GLOBALIZATION UNITED STATES COULD IMPOSE REALLY SUBSTANTIAL ECONOMIC PRESSURE ON ANY OTHER COUNTRY IN THE WORLD WITHOUT THE USE OF MILITARY FORCE, WITHOUT A NAVAL BLOCKADE.

IT TAKES SIGNING A DOCUMENT IN THE OVAL OFFICE TO CUT OFF A FOREIGN BANK OR COMPANY FROM THE DOLLAR, YOU DON'T HAVE TO, YOU KNOW, BLOCKADE A PORT OR PUT A SIEGE ON THEIR CITIES.

THE OTHER FACTOR IS THAT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARS IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ, THE POLITICAL SUPPORT IN THE UNITED STATES FOR THE USE OF MILITARY FORCE HAS JUST TOTALLY EVAPORATED.

I THINK WHAT HAS HAPPENED OVER THE LAST YEAR WITH TRUMP'S OPERATION TO BOMB IRAN'S NUCLEAR FACILITIES LAST YEAR, OPERATION MIDNIGHT HAMMER, AND THEN, OF COURSE, THE REALLY SPECTACULARLY SUCCESSFUL MADURO RAID AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS YEAR, TRUMP IN SOME WAYS HAD THIS EXAGGERATED SENSE OF COMPETENCE AND POWER OF THE U. S. MILITARY.

AND IN SOME WAYS I THINK MAYBE TEMPORARILY WASHINGTON FORGOT THE LESSONS OF IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN, THAT IT IS MUCH EASIER TO START A WAR THAN TO END IT ON TERMS THAT ARE ADVANCING U. S. INTERESTS.

SO I DO THINK IN SOME WAYS WE WERE CREEPING IN THAT DIRECTION.

BUT I DO SUSPECT THAT WE ALL NOW ARE VERY VISCERALLY AWARE IN THE UNITED STATES AND AROUND THE WORLD OF THE VERY SIGNIFICANT COLLATERAL DAMAGE THAT MILITARY CAMPAIGNS CAN HAVE, AND SO I EXPECT THAT ONE CONSEQUENCE OF THIS IRAN WAR IS GOING TO BE A RENEWED FOCUS ON THE USE OF ECONOMIC WARFARE, BOTH BY THE UNITED STATES AND BY COUNTRIES LIKE CHINA AROUND THE WORLD.

>> EDWARD FISHMAN, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

>> MY PLEASURE.

THANKS FOR THE GREAT CONVERSATION.

>> AND FINALLY -- WE JUST HEARD THE WHALE SONG OF A HUMPBACK FROM OVER 70 YEARS AGO.

ACCORDING TO RESEARCHERS AT THE WOODS HALL OCEANICOGRAPHIC INSTITUTION, IT IS LIKELY THE OLDEST KNOWN RECORDING OF THESE HAUNTING SIGNS, CAPTURED NEAR BERMUDA ON MARCH 7th, 1949.

IT WAS DISCOVERED ON A FRAGILE BUT INCREDIBLY WELL PRESERVED DISC, SLOTTED INTO THIS SIMPLE OFFICE DICTATION DEVICE THAT WAS USED FOR RECORDING.

WHAT IS STRIKING IS HOW MUCH QUIETER THE OCEAN WAS BACK THEN, COMPARED TO NOW.

HELPING MARINE SCIENTISTS BETTER UNDERSTAND HOW THE SOUNDSCAPE HAS EVOLVED AND THE IMPACT OF HUMAN ACTIVITY ON THE SURVIVAL OF THESE GENTLE GIANTS.

AND THAT IS IT FOR OUR PROGRAM TONIGHT.

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ORG/AMANPOUR.

THANKS FOR WATCHING AND GOOD-BYE FROM LONDON.